Gene Munster and Brian Baker from Deepwater shared their exceptions for Tesla’s robotaxi event. The TSLA analysts predict the company will unveil a stripped-down Model 3 during the Robotaxi event.
Deepwater analysts believe Tesla will unveil three vehicles during the ‘We, Robot’ event: the Model 2, Cybervan, and Cybercab or robotaxi.
Munster theorizes that the Model 2 will be a stripped-down version of the Model 3 because Elon Musk delayed Tesla’s Robotaxi event to make “important changes“ to the cybercab vehicle. The TSLA bull reasons that if Musk is still making changes to the design of the cybercab (aka robotaxi), then production will likely get pushed back as well.
In a recent Deepwater note, Munster and Baker write that Tesla will likely focus on vehicles nearing production for the event but tease upcoming products like the Cybervan and Optimus. Munster expects Tesla Model 2 production to start in late 2025, which he notes is later than Elon Musk’s estimate during the Q2 2024 earnings call.
“We won’t go much into the product roadmap here because that is reserved for product announcement events. But we are on track to deliver a more affordable model in the first half of next year,” Musk said in the second quarter.
The Model 2 is expected to start at $25,000. Below are Munster’s expectations for robotaxi, Model 2, and the Cybervan.
1. Robotaxi: I expect we will see a physical prototype of the Robotaxi. We also believe the model will have a futuristic feel, like that of the Cybertruck, without a steering wheel, pedals, or mirrors. Additionally, the reveal will include a “demo” of the Robotaxi in action, summoned by the Tesla ride-hailing app and showing off its autonomous capabilities by maneuvering some sort of track or route.
2. Model 2: The $25k Model 2 (aka Model A) will be previewed with no working prototype. I expect this vehicle that will share similarities with the Robotaxi. While Model 2 will have a steering wheel, pedals, and mirrors, it won’t require FSD to operate. The body will be distinguishable from the Robotaxi, but overall will be on the same production as Robotaxi.
3. Cybervan: In a similar surprise to the updated Roadster driving out of the back of the Semi at the Semi launch, I expect Elon will unveil plans for a fully autonomous passenger van (Robotaxi XL for 8-10 people). While the passenger van will be light on Tesla’s signature design, it will be heavy on leveraging autonomy for the ride-hailing vision of affordable transportation. This vehicle will be focused on dense urban areas and could play a role in the future of public transportation, which we estimate expands the ride-hailing addressable market by 20%.
